Country-level predictors of COVID-19 mortality.

This study aimed to identify country-level predictors of COVID-19 mortality, after controlling for diverse potential factors, and utilizing current worldwide mortality data. COVID-19 deaths, as well as geographic, demographic, socioeconomic, healthcare, population health, and pandemic-related variables, were obtained for 152 countries. Continuous variables were examined with Spearman's correlation, categorical variables with ANOVA or Welch's Heteroscedastic F Test, and country-level independent predictors of COVID-19 mortality identified by weighted generalized additive models. This study identified independent mortality predictors in six limited models, comprising groups of related variables. However, in the full model, only WHO region, percent of population ≥ 65 years, Corruption Perception Index, hospital beds/100,000 population, and COVID-19 cases/100,000 population were predictive of mortality, with model accounting for 80.7% of variance. These findings suggest areas for focused intervention in the event of similar future public health emergencies, including prioritization of the elderly, optimizing healthcare capacity, and improving deficient health sector-related governance.

Inequities in COVID-19 Omicron infections and hospitalisations for Maori and Pacific people in Te Manawa Taki Midland region, New Zealand.

COVID-19 impacts population health equity. While mRNA vaccines protect against serious illness and death, little New Zealand (NZ) data exist about the impact of Omicron - and the effectiveness of vaccination - on different population groups. We aim to examine the impact of Omicron on Maori, Pacific, and Other ethnicities and how this interacts with age and vaccination status in the Te Manawa Taki Midland region of NZ. Daily COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation rates (1 February 2022 to 29 June 2022) were calculated for Maori, Pacific, and Other ethnicities for six age bands. A multivariate logistic regression model quantified the effects of ethnicity, age, and vaccination on hospitalisation rates. Per-capita Omicron cases were highest and occurred earliest among Pacific (9 per 1,000) and Maori (5 per 1,000) people and were highest among 12-24-year-olds (7 per 1,000). Hospitalisation was significantly more likely for Maori people (odds ratio (OR) = 2.03), Pacific people (OR = 1.75), over 75-year-olds (OR = 39.22), and unvaccinated people (OR = 4.64). Length of hospitalisation is strongly related to age. COVID-19 vaccination reduces hospitalisations for older individuals and Maori and Pacific populations. Omicron inequitably impacted Maori and Pacific people through higher per-capita infection and hospitalisation rates. Older people are more likely to be hospitalised and for longer.

Political views, health literacy, and COVID-19 beliefs and behaviors: A moderated mediation model.

RATIONALE: Mitigating the spread of COVID-19 requires that people understand the need for and engage in protective behaviors. Given the complexity and rapid progression of media information about the pandemic, health literacy could be essential to acquiring the accurate beliefs, concern for societal risks, and appreciation of restrictive policies needed to motivate these behaviors. Yet with the increasingly politicized nature of COVID-related issues in the United States, health literacy could be an asset for those with more liberal views but less so for those with more conservative views. OBJECTIVE: This study tested a hypothesized model proposing that political views moderate the associations of health literacy with COVID-19 protective behaviors as well as the mediational roles of accurate and inaccurate COVID-19 beliefs, concern for society, and governmental control attitudes. METHODS: We surveyed residents in three diverse regions of California in June 2020 (N = 669) and February 2021 (N = 611). Participants completed measures of health literacy, political views, and COVID-19 beliefs and behaviors. RESULTS: Moderated mediational analyses largely supported the proposed model with both samples. Health literacy was associated with more accurate COVID-19 beliefs, less inaccurate COVID-19 beliefs, greater concern for societal risks, more positive attitudes regarding restrictive government control, more protective behavior, less risky behavior, and stronger vaccine intentions; beliefs, concern for society, and governmental control attitudes mediated the health literacy-behavior relationships. As predicted, however, these associations of health literacy with adaptive beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors varied according to political views. The direct and mediated relationships were held for participants with more liberal views and, to a lesser extent, for those with moderate views, but they were weaker or absent for participants with more conservative views. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute new evidence of processes linking health literacy with adaptive beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors and how social and political contexts can shape those processes.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management.

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Infectious Bronchitis Coronavirus: Genome Evolution in Vaccinated and Non-Vaccinated SPF Chickens.

Infectious Bronchitis virus (IBV) continues to cause significant economic losses for the chicken industry despite the use of many live IBV vaccines around the world. Several authors have suggested that vaccine-induced partial protection may contribute to the emergence of new IBV strains. In order to study this hypothesis, three passages of a challenge IBV were made in SPF chickens sham inoculated or vaccinated at day of age using a live vaccine heterologous to the challenge virus. All birds that were challenged with vaccine heterologous virus were positive for viral RNA. NGS analysis of viral RNA in the unvaccinated group showed a rapid selection of seven genetic variants, finally modifying the consensus genome of the viral population. Among them, five were non-synonymous, modifying one position in NSP 8, one in NSP 13, and three in the Spike protein. In the vaccinated group, one genetic variant was selected over the three passages. This synonymous modification was absent from the unvaccinated group. Under these conditions, the genome population of an IBV challenge virus evolved rapidly in both heterologous vaccinated and non-vaccinated birds, while the genetic changes that were selected and the locations of these were very different between the two groups.

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies. METHOD: Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000-2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models. RESULTS: We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9-100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1-99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.

Mental Well-Being during COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Study of Fly-In Fly-Out Workers in the Mining Industry in Australia.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has devastated the world, and its mental health impact has been recognized in the general population. However, little is known about the mental health impact of COVID-19 on fly-in fly-out (FIFO) workers, who are flown to temporarily stay and work in remote areas, during this pandemic. This study examined the mental well-being of FIFO workers in the mining industry during COVID-19 restrictions in Western Australia. An online survey was conducted between May to November 2020 among (N = 842) FIFO workers who underwent COVID-19 screening at a large mining company in Western Australia. The mental well-being score among workers was higher than population norms. One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni post-hoc tests showed significant differences in mental well-being by age, being placed under travel quarantine, undertaking self-isolation, impact of social distance guidelines, and experience of COVID-19 related symptoms. Multiple linear regression analysis showed workers who were younger, placed under travel quarantine and experienced two or more COVID-19 related symptoms were more likely to have worse mental well-being. Acknowledging the negative emotions and distress experiences among the vulnerable groups could help in providing suitable support to help lessen these negative experiences in FIFO workers.

An external validation of the QCovid risk prediction algorithm for risk of mortality from COVID-19 in adults: a national validation cohort study in England.

BACKGROUND: Public policy measures and clinical risk assessments relevant to COVID-19 need to be aided by risk prediction models that are rigorously developed and validated. We aimed to externally validate a risk prediction algorithm (QCovid) to estimate mortality outcomes from COVID-19 in adults in England. METHODS: We did a population-based cohort study using the UK Office for National Statistics Public Health Linked Data Asset, a cohort of individuals aged 19-100 years, based on the 2011 census and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, the General Practice Extraction Service data for pandemic planning and research, and radiotherapy and systemic chemotherapy records. The primary outcome was time to COVID-19 death, defined as confirmed or suspected COVID-19 death as per death certification. Two periods were used: (1) Jan 24 to April 30, 2020, and (2) May 1 to July 28, 2020. We assessed the performance of the QCovid algorithms using measures of discrimination and calibration. Using predicted 90-day risk of COVID-19 death, we calculated r2 values, Brier scores, and measures of discrimination and calibration with corresponding 95% CIs over the two time periods. FINDINGS: We included 34 897 648 adults aged 19-100 years resident in England. 26 985 (0·08%) COVID-19 deaths occurred during the first period and 13 177 (0·04%) during the second. The algorithms had good discrimination and calibration in both periods. In the first period, they explained 77·1% (95% CI 76·9-77·4) of the variation in time to death in men and 76·3% (76·0-76·6) in women. The D statistic was 3·761 (3·732-3·789) for men and 3·671 (3·640-3·702) for women and Harrell's C was 0·935 (0·933-0·937) for men and 0·945 (0·943-0·947) for women. Similar results were obtained for the second time period. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths in the first period was 65·94% for men and 71·67% for women. INTERPRETATION: The QCovid population-based risk algorithm performed well, showing high levels of discrimination for COVID-19 deaths in men and women for both time periods. QCovid has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves and, therefore, has potential use in guiding national policy. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research.

Controlled Heat and Humidity-Based Treatment for the Reuse of Personal Protective Equipment: A Pragmatic Proof-of-Concept to Address the Mass Shortage of Surgical Masks and N95/FFP2 Respirators and to Prevent the SARS-CoV2 Transmission.

Background: The coronavirus infectious disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an unprecedented shortage of healthcare resources, primarily personal protective equipment like surgical masks, and N95/filtering face piece type 2 (FFP2) respirators. Objective: Reuse of surgical masks and N95/FFP2 respirators may circumvent the supply chain constraints and thus overcome mass shortage. Methods, design, setting, and measurement: Herein, we tested the effects of dry- and moist-air controlled heating treatment on structure and chemical integrity, decontamination yield, and filtration performance of surgical masks and FFP2 respirators. Results: We found that treatment in a climate chamber at 70°C during 1 h with 75% humidity rate was adequate for enabling substantial decontamination of both respiratory viruses, oropharyngeal bacteria, and model animal coronaviuses, while maintaining a satisfying filtering capacity. Limitations: Further studies are now required to confirm the feasibility of the whole process during routine practice. Conclusion: Our findings provide compelling evidence for the recycling of pre-used surgical masks and N95/FFP2 respirators in case of imminent mass shortfall.

Viral variant visualizer (VVV): A novel bioinformatic tool for rapid and simple visualization of viral genetic diversity.

Here a bioinformatic pipeline VVV has been developed to analyse viral populations in a given sample from Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data. To date, handling large amounts of data from NGS requires the expertise of bioinformaticians, both for data processing and result analysis. Consequently, VVV was designed to help non-bioinformaticians to perform these tasks. By providing only the NGS data file, the developed pipeline generated consensus sequences and determined the composition of the viral population for an avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV) and three different animal coronaviruses (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV), Turkey Coronavirus (TCoV) and Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV)). In all cases, the pipeline produced viral consensus genomes corresponding to known consensus sequence and made it possible to highlight the presence of viral genetic variants through a single graphic representation. The method was validated by comparing the viral populations of an AMPV field sample, and of a copy of this virus produced from a DNA clone. VVV demonstrated that the cloned virus population was homogeneous (as designed) at position 2934 where the wild-type virus demonstrated two variant populations at a ratio of almost 50:50. A total of 18, 10, 3 and 28, viral genetic variants were detected for AMPV, PEDV, TCoV and IBV respectively. The simplicity of this pipeline makes the study of viral genetic variants more accessible to a wide variety of biologists, which should ultimately increase the rate of understanding of the mechanisms of viral genetic evolution.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus: Viral RNA detection and quantification using a validated one-step real time RT-PCR.

Since 2014, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has reemerged in Europe. RT-PCR methods have been described for the detection of PEDV, but none have been validated according to a norm. In this study we described the development and validation of a SYBR™ Green one-step RT-qPCR according to the French norm NF U47-600, for the detection and quantification of PEDV viral RNA. The method was validated from sample preparation (feces or jejunum) through to nucleic acid extraction and RT-qPCR detection. Specificity and sensitivity, limit of detection (LoD), limit of quantification (LQ), linearity, intra and inter assay variability were evaluated using transcribed RNA and fecal and jejunum matrices spiked with virus. The analytical and diagnostic specificities and sensitivities of this RT-qPCR were 100% in this study. A LoD of 50 genome copies/5 µl of extract from fecal matrices spiked with virus or RNA transcript and 100 genome copies/5 µl of extract from jejunum matrices spiked with virus were obtained. The Lower LQ (LLQ) was 100 genome copies/5 µl and the Upper LQ (ULQ) 108 copies/5 µl. This method is the first, validated according a norm for PEDV and may serve as a global reference method to harmonize detection and quantification of PEDV viral RNA in both field and experimental settings.